Natural Gas Prices Surge as October Begins with Strong Bullish Momentum

Natural gas prices kicked off October with a sharp rally, rising to $3.47 per MMBtu on the first day of the month. That marks a 5.15% gain from the previous session and caps off a powerful upward trend. Over the past 30 days, the market has advanced 15.43%, while prices are now 20.35% higher than the same time last year — a clear sign of renewed strength in the energy sector.

This surge follows a breakout from a key technical range, as natural gas futures climbed above important moving averages that had previously acted as resistance. With that breakout confirmed, traders are now watching for potential continuation toward the $3.60 to $4.00 range — levels not seen since the peak of last winter’s volatility.

Weather patterns are playing a central role in this momentum. Although early autumn conditions have remained mild in many regions, updated forecasts are calling for cooler-than-average temperatures across much of the northern U.S. heading deeper into October. That shift is likely to increase residential heating demand, a key seasonal driver of natural gas consumption.

At the same time, the supply landscape is becoming more nuanced. While overall U.S. inventories remain above the five-year seasonal average, domestic production growth has slowed, especially in basins tied to oil output. LNG export volumes remain robust, with global demand for U.S. natural gas staying elevated as overseas buyers prepare for their own winter heating needs. A recent dip in pipeline exports to Mexico has slightly tightened the domestic market, adding further support to prices.

Now that the summer and early fall trading period has ended, the market is clearly transitioning into its most active season. With colder weather looming and storage levels soon to flip from injection to withdrawal mode, the balance between supply and demand could shift quickly. Weekly EIA reports are under close watch, as any sign of larger-than-expected draws could trigger additional price spikes.

The current rally shows signs of durability, but it isn’t without risk. A sudden turn toward warmer weather or a surprise uptick in production could halt the upward trend. Still, for now, sentiment remains bullish, with both technical and fundamental indicators pointing toward continued strength in the weeks ahead.

As the heating season approaches, natural gas continues to command the market’s attention — and if forecasts hold, prices may yet have room to run.