U.S. Natural Gas Storage Builds 74 Bcf as Exports Surge and Colder Weather Sparks Market Rebound

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday that working gas in storage increased by 74 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending October 24, 2025. Total working gas now stands at 3,882 Bcf, comfortably above last year’s level of 3,853 Bcf and 171 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,711 Bcf.

Although the injection came in slightly higher than market expectations of a 71 Bcf build, the data suggests the market remains well supplied heading into the winter heating season. Natural gas futures initially edged lower after the release but quickly recovered, trading around $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)—just shy of the recent three-month high of $4.00 seen earlier in the week.

Storage Levels Stay Above Average but Within Normal Range

Regionally, storage builds were broad-based, with the South Central region leading the increase at 27 Bcf, followed by the Midwest (25 Bcf) and the East (14 Bcf). Smaller builds were recorded in the Mountain (4 Bcf) and Pacific (5 Bcf) regions. In total, storage remains within the five-year historical range, though notably higher than both the prior year and the longer-term average.

That cushion provides a level of comfort for market participants, ensuring adequate supply flexibility as winter demand begins to rise. But it also creates a ceiling for prices—at least for now—since storage surplus tends to dampen fears of shortages.

Still, traders remain watchful. The balance between supply and demand could tighten quickly if colder temperatures arrive earlier than expected or if export activity continues to rise.

Exports Reach Record Highs, Balancing Strong Production

Domestic natural gas production remains near historic levels, averaging around 107 Bcf per day through October. Yet despite that record output, the U.S. market has avoided an oversupply glut thanks to a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Feedgas deliveries to America’s eight major LNG export terminals averaged 16.5 Bcf per day in October, up from 15.7 Bcf per day in September. This marks a new monthly record, driven by heightened overseas demand as global markets prepare for winter. European buyers, continuing their shift away from Russian pipeline gas, have been particularly active. At the same time, several Asian nations have increased U.S. LNG purchases amid ongoing trade negotiations and government-led energy security initiatives.

This combination of strong exports and resilient domestic production has created a delicate equilibrium in the market—one that’s keeping inventories robust without overwhelming storage capacity.

Weather Shifts Fuel Bullish Sentiment

Weather remains the wild card. Forecast models this week turned noticeably colder, with meteorologists expecting below-normal temperatures to sweep across much of the Midwest and Northeast in early November. That shift could accelerate the start of the winter withdrawal season, pushing demand higher for residential and commercial heating.

Colder forecasts have already influenced futures trading. According to analysts, the recent rally toward $4.00/MMBtu has been fueled not only by export data but also by early signs of a chillier-than-normal winter pattern. If those projections hold, demand could quickly erode the current storage surplus, tightening supply conditions and lifting prices further.

However, a return to milder weather could just as easily reverse momentum. The current storage overhang means the market has a sizable buffer, limiting the risk of extreme price spikes unless prolonged cold persists.

Market Outlook: A Cautious Balance Between Supply and Demand

The next few weeks will be crucial as the market transitions from injection to withdrawal mode. The next EIA report, scheduled for November 6, 2025, will provide a clearer signal of whether storage builds are winding down or if mild conditions continue to allow injections deeper into November.

Traders will also watch LNG feedgas levels and U.S. production trends closely. Any disruptions to export infrastructure or production—whether from maintenance, weather events, or logistical issues—could quickly shift the balance and impact pricing.

For now, analysts describe the market as “well supplied but finely balanced.” The combination of ample inventories, record export volumes, and changing weather outlooks sets the stage for a potentially volatile winter season.

Bottom Line

The EIA’s latest data reinforces a picture of stability amid uncertainty. With storage at 3,882 Bcf, production near record highs, and exports breaking new ground, the U.S. natural gas market is entering winter with a comfortable buffer—but not without risks.

Prices near $3.90/MMBtu suggest traders are weighing that balance carefully. As colder weather looms and LNG demand remains firm, the coming weeks could determine whether the market tightens significantly or maintains its current steady footing.

Either way, the 2025–26 heating season is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in recent years, as the interplay of weather, exports, and production defines the direction of U.S. natural gas prices through the end of the year.