U.S. Natural Gas Storage Rises by 80 Bcf as Production Slows and Winter Demand Looms

The latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on October 9, 2025, shows a solid storage build as the market transitions into the shoulder season. For the week ending October 3, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states increased by 80 billion cubic feet (Bcf), bringing total inventories to 3,641 Bcf. This level is 23 Bcf higher than last year and 157 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,484 Bcf, putting storage roughly 4.5% above seasonal norms.

Regionally, the Midwest led weekly injections with a net gain of 29 Bcf, followed closely by the East at 28 Bcf. The South Central region added 15 Bcf, with 3 Bcf of that going into salt facilities and 12 Bcf into nonsalt formations. The Mountain and Pacific regions saw modest increases of 6 Bcf and 2 Bcf, respectively. Overall, storage levels remain within the five-year historical range, reflecting a balanced yet slightly oversupplied market entering the heating season.

This rise in storage comes as U.S. natural gas production shows signs of easing. Average output in the Lower 48 states so far in October has slipped to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, production dipped as low as 104.7 bcfd, marking a potential 13-week low. The decrease, while notable, has not significantly tightened the market due to robust injections earlier this year when production peaked.

Despite the solid storage numbers, U.S. natural gas futures have retreated, falling to around $3.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) after reaching an 11-week high earlier in October. This pullback reflects a combination of seasonal demand slowdown, ample supply, and a lack of significant weather-driven volatility. Weather forecasts through October 23 suggest mostly average conditions, though an expected cooldown over the next two weeks could marginally increase heating demand, potentially offering some price support.

In terms of export demand, U.S. LNG flows continue to show strength, with volumes to the eight major liquefied natural gas export terminals averaging 16.1 bcfd so far in October. This is a slight increase from 15.7 bcfd in September, indicating sustained international demand despite global market fluctuations.

Looking ahead, the natural gas market remains well-supported by healthy inventory levels and resilient export flows. However, with production tapering and weather-driven demand set to rise, the balance between supply and demand could shift as winter approaches. Market participants will be closely watching for early-season cold snaps and any signs of supply disruptions, both of which could inject volatility into prices and reshape storage trajectories in the coming weeks.

The next EIA storage report will be released on October 16, 2025, offering further insight into whether current trends continue or begin to shift as the winter heating season nears.